Published By: News Desk
News18.com
Last Updated: March 14, 2024, 19:50 IST
New Delhi, India
Nitish Kumar recently forged an alliance with PM Narendra Modi-led BJP. (PTI File)
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition is likely to win 38 seats in Bihar in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, leaving only two for the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), according to the News18 Mega Opinion Poll. The survey has predicted 58% vote share for the NDA, 28% for INDIA and 14% for others.
ALSO READ | News18 Opinion Poll Predicts Mega Modi Wave in Madhya Pradesh: 28 of 29 Seats for NDA, 1 for INDIA
CNN-News18’s survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95% all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.
For Bihar’s 40 seats, a sample size of 8,400 responses was planned, however, 9,140 was achieved.
#MegaPollWithNews18 predicts 38 (out of 40) seats for NDA in Bihar, 2 for I.N.D.I.A alliance @Zakka_Jacob decodes region-wise break-up of seats (predictions) on Magic Wall "After so much of uncertainty in Bihar, the fact that NDA voteshare (according to News18… pic.twitter.com/EZYqQZokHR
— News18 (@CNNnews18) March 13, 2024
The state saw major political developments recently. CM Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) got out of an alliance with Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to form a government with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Six members of the Mahagathbandhan, too, have switched to the BJP. The BJP has already allied with Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) for the polls.
Determined to give them a fight, Tejashwi Yadav started his ‘Jan Vishwas Rally’ in Patna on March 3, in which his father Lalu Prasad Yadav took a potshot at Prime Minister Narendra Modi for attacking “parivaarvaad” because he did not have a family of his own. This has led to the BJP’s ‘Modi Ka Parivar’ campaign on social media.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the BJP, JDU and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), had won 39 of the 40 seats. The Mahagathbandhan, comprising Indian National Congress (INC), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), had secured just one seat, Kishanganj, with Congress’s Md. Jawed as the winner.
21 states, 518 #LokSabha constituencies, 210 interviews…as News18 presents India's biggest & most comprehensive #OpinionPoll, here's a look at this mammoth survey's methodology Watch #LIVE | #MegaPollWithNews18 #LokSabhaElections2024 @Zakka_Jacob @AnchorAnandN @RShivshankar pic.twitter.com/v7zMlMoNWh
— News18 (@CNNnews18) March 13, 2024
All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each of the Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were selected. Five polling booths were selected in each Vidhan Sabha constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Utilising a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling.
Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geo-tagged to verify its authenticity.
A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.
