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The BJP is set to win a record mandate in Uttar Pradesh and repeat its 2019 feat in several Hindi heartland states, according to News18’s Mega Opinion Poll.
The Part 1 of the News18’s Mega Opinion Poll was released on March 13. The opinion poll is being broadcast over two days on March 13 and 14, covering 21 states and 518 Lok Sabha constituencies.
According to the opinion poll, which is India’s biggest such survey, the NDA is expected to win 174 out of the 242 seats covered on Day 1 while opposition bloc INDIA is expected to win 61. The remaining 7 seats would be shared by other parties.
Notably, in the 7 Hindi heartland states covered on Day 1, the BJP’s strike rate in 2024 is projected to be 92%, higher than its 2019 strike rate of 89.4% in the same region.
The opinion poll projections show that DMK-Congress will manage to post a decent performance in Tamil Nadu, with a depleted seat share compared to 2019. In Kerala too, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win 14 seats, 2 fewer than its 2019 tally.
Here’s a state-wise breakdown of Part 1 of the News18 Mega Opinion Poll:
Uttar Pradesh
The BJP-led NDA is set to sweep the most crucial political state, winning a record 77 out of the 80 seats, according to the opinion poll projections.
The INDIA alliance comprising Samajwadi Party and Congress will only manage 2 seats while the Mayawati-led BSP, which is contesting on its own, is expected to win just one, the survey said.
Moreover, according to the projections, NDA is likely to post an impressive vote share of 57% in Uttar Pradesh while the SP-Cong alliance will get 26% of the votes.
If the predictions hold true, this will be BJP’s best performance in UP so far. In 2014, the BJP had won a record 71 seats in UP while its Apna Dal (S) ally had won 2.
In 2019, the seat share had dropped marginally, with BJP winning 62 seats and Apna Dal (S) winning 2.
Catch LIVE updates of News18 Mega Opinion Poll
Bihar
In Bihar, the BJP-JD(U) alliance is projected to bag 38 out of the 40 seats in the state while the INDIA bloc – comprising RJD, Congress and other parties – is expected to win just 2 seats. The forecast is similar to the 2019 results, when the NDA won 39 out of the 40 seats in the state.
The opinion polls show that Nitish Kumar’s re-entry into the NDA-fold earlier this year will significantly boost the BJP-led alliance’s prospects in the state. Last time too, BJP and JD(U) fought the Lok Sabha alliance together. However, Nitish later walked out of the NDA alliance and formed a fresh state government with Congress and RJD.
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In terms of vote share, the NDA alliance is projected to bag 58% of the votes while the INDIA bloc will only manage 28% of the votes, according to the opinion poll.
Tamil Nadu
In the southern state, the DMK-Congress alliance is expected to win 30 out of the 39 seats – a slight dip from its 2019 performance, the opinion poll has predicted.
Notably, the BJP, which is still to form an alliance in the state, is expected to win 5 seats, the opinion poll said.
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If the predictions hold true, the results will come as a shot in the arm for BJP which is trying hard to expand its base in the south, a region where it has found little luck in the past.
The DMK-Congress alliance is projected to win 51% of the votes, according to the opinion poll.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, DMK-Congress alliance had swept the general election in Tamil Nadu, winning 38 out of the 39 seats. The AIADMK managed to win just 1.
Madhya Pradesh
In the Hindi heartland state, BJP is predicted to repeat its 2019 performance, winning 28 out of the 29 seats, according to the opinion poll.
Congress, meanwhile, is expected to win just 1 seat.
In 2019 too, BJP won all but 1 seat in the state since the Congress managed to hold on to Chhindwara, the bastion of Kamal Nath, which is currently held by his son Nakul Nath.
According to the opinion poll, BJP is expected to win 55% of the votes whle Congress is likely to get 38%.
Kerala
According to the opinion poll, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win 14 out of the 20 seats in Kerala while the ruling LDF is expected to get 4.
In 2019, UDF had registered a landslide victory in Kerala, winning 18 seats while the CM Pinaryi Vijayan-led alliance won just 2.
The opinion poll projected that INDIA bloc will get 47% of the vote share while LDF would win just over 32% of the votes.
Punjab
The opinion poll has thrown up interesting projections in Punjab, which is set to witness a multi-cornered contest.
Congress, which was ousted from power in 2022, is projected to win 7 out of 13 seats in the state while the BJP-led NDA is expected to bag 3. The AAP, which secured a landslide victory in the state election, is expected to win just 1 seat in a repeat of its 2019 performance, the opinion poll has said.
SAD, too, is expected to win 2 seats. So far, SAD has not announced an alliance with BJP despite buzz that it may return to the NDA fold.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had won 8 seats in Punjab while the SAD-BJP combine bagged 4.
BJP clean sweep in Delhi, Haryana and Himachal
In Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, the BJP is set for a clean sweep yet again, the opinion poll has predicted.
According to the opinion poll, the BJP is set to win all 10 seats in Haryana, 7 seats in Delhi and 4 in Himachal Pradesh. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too, the BJP had swept the three northern states.
In 2014, the BJP had won all 7 constituencies in Delhi and 4 in Himachal Pradesh. However, in Haryana, it had won 7.
Notably, the opinion poll had predicted that BJP will clock an impressive vote share of 67% in Himachal Pradesh.
The Congress government in Himachal Pradesh is already on edge after cross-voting by its MLAs in the recent Rajya Sabha polls.
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