Curated By: News Desk
News18.com
Last Updated: March 14, 2024, 19:49 IST
New Delhi, India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav. (PTI File)
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition is likely to win 28 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, leaving only one for the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), according to the News18 Mega Opinion Poll. The survey has predicted 55% vote share for the NDA, 38% for INDIA and 7% for others.
ALSO READ | News18 Mega Opinion Poll Predicts Stunning Saffron Sweep in Bihar: 38 of 40 Seats for BJP-Led NDA
CNN-News18’s survey from February 12 to March 1 covered 21 major states of India that account for 95% all Lok Sabha constituencies, making it one of the largest surveys in the country. It provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the upcoming general elections.
For MP’s 29 seats, a sample size of 6,090 responses was planned, however, 7,014 was achieved.
BJP to get 28 out of 29 seats in #MadhyaPradesh, I.N.D.I.A alliance will get 1, according to News18 #OpinionPoll #MegaPollWithNews18 #LokSabhaElections2024 | @AnchorAnandN @RShivshankar @Zakka_Jacob pic.twitter.com/DPCGybWloA— News18 (@CNNnews18) March 13, 2024
Fresh from assembly elections last year, the political scenario in Madhya Pradesh seems more or less settled ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP, which registered a landslide win in that election, beat anti-incumbency against chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. And not much will change for the saffron party if the results of 2019 are also taken into account.
The political crisis of 2020 in the Hindi belt notwithstanding, the state’s past electoral trends show a tough contest between the two major parties – BJP and Congress. This time, the Congress is joined by the Samajwadi Party as part of the opposition INDIA bloc. The Congress, which had won the state elections in 2018 as the single largest party, ran into a political crisis as Jyotiraditya Scindia defected to the BJP along with 22 rebel MLAs. But, the BJP swept the 2023 election as it reaffirmed its hold on the state, often known as the ‘Heart of India’. With frequent shifts when it comes to state polls, the BJP and Congress have been engaged in a constant tussle. It is the sixth-largest state in terms of parliamentary representation, with 10 seats reserved for candidates belonging to the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes.
The BJP swept the state in the 2019 general election, winning 28 out of 29 seats, while the Congress managed to win only one. The saffron party had a vote share of 58% in 2019, while the Congress garnered a share of 34.5%. This makes the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a frontrunner for this year’s polls as well, even as the Congress aims for a comeback.
The BJP has fielded union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia from Guna, state president and sitting MP VD Sharma from Khajuraho, former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Vidisha among others. The party declared 24 candidates on March 2.
The Congress, meanwhile, announced 10 candidates for the state in its second list. While only two names were retained, eight new faces were fielded. The party has fielded candidates for four ST and three SC seats so far. The party won the lone Chhindwara seat last time. This time, former CM Kamal Nath’s son Nakul Nath will contest from this seat again putting to rest rumours that the father-son duo may defect to the BJP. In fact, Kamal Nath has said the party will win 12 to 13 seats this time. The party has also named prominent Dalit leader and Bhander MLA Phool Singh Baraiya from the Bhind SC seat. He had joined the Congress in 2019, and will face sitting MP and BJP candidate Sandhya Rai this time.
Only last week, senior leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra passed through the state. He said conducting a caste census and providing legally guaranteed minimum support price for crops will be the first two decisions of the Congress government if it comes to power.
21 states, 518 #LokSabha constituencies, 210 interviews…as News18 presents India's biggest & most comprehensive #OpinionPoll, here's a look at this mammoth survey's methodology Watch #LIVE | #MegaPollWithNews18 #LokSabhaElections2024 @Zakka_Jacob @AnchorAnandN @RShivshankar pic.twitter.com/v7zMlMoNWh
— News18 (@CNNnews18) March 13, 2024
All Lok Sabha constituencies in the 21 states, a total of 518 Lok Sabha constituencies, were covered in the survey. In each of the Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were selected. Five polling booths were selected in each Vidhan Sabha constituency, where 210 interviews were conducted among eligible voters (only one per household). Utilising a structured questionnaire translated into 11 regional languages, the survey employed personal face-to-face interviews conducted at homes selected via random sampling.
Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by trained investigators from 10 different fieldwork agencies, with strict quality control measures in place. Before going into the field, the teams underwent detailed briefing sessions to ensure adherence to the sampling plan and questionnaire. Senior field managers and executives conducted on-the-spot quality checks, and each interview was geo-tagged to verify its authenticity.
A total sample size of 1,18,616 across 21 states was achieved.
